COVID 3/26/20

By Will Laurance on 03/26/2020

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5 days later and the USA is the number one country with COVID-19 infections. Today I heard of many people I know who have a friend or family member affected. Next up will be 1st order. I know I'm fortunate because most of my 1st degree connections are staying home and following protocols. But a few aren't. You know who you are and I love you. But you are putting yourself at risk and those you stay with.

On paper we are out of the shortest bear market. The stimulus bill made progress and likely to pass. The Dow rallied 1350 points despite the largest unemployment numbers on record, 3.28 million. As of 10pm CST the Dow futures are down 320. So who knows what will happen in coming days. To be clear I am bearish. The stimulus money is not projected to reach the pockets of people in a ~month. Rent and mortgages are due April 1st. No fools needed. It's not a joke that many people will not pay those bills in favor of having another few weeks groceries.

A couple days ago Lt. Dan said old people should die for the economy. A meme started "do it for the dow". Which is stupid. But hey at least people roasted this guy. My view is shutting down and containing the novel Coronavirus is our only hope at a stable economy. Unfortunately now the virus has found a new exploit: The American Healthcare System.

Reports show Gov. Cuomo of New York estimates he'll need 30,000 to 40,000 ventilators in the very near future. Because older people are staying on them longer as they fight to survive. The President downplayed the request and we'll see how many they are able to build via GM or "competing bids".

My mother returns to her hospital tonight and they still do not have the PPE required. I'm worried she'll get COVID-19 but I know she's making a difference in her corner of the world.

Today was finally a productive day at work. I'm not sure what changed or what didn't. I felt better about the work and getting more organized. I know this COVID stuff is distracting me. It's "fun" to explore but frightening to realize it's real. The exponential growth is real. I hope people understand logarithmic y-axis. I hope people are washing their hands.

Links from today

https://metasd.com/2020/03/community-coronavirus-model-bozeman/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/us/politics/coronavirus-ventilators-trump.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

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