COVID 4/10/20

By Will Laurance on 04/10/2020

Yesterday more unemployment numbers came out and we added another ~6 million applications this week. Mr. Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, unleashed a plan to buy... junk bonds or high yield bonds [0]. After this, there's not much more to buy except equities. So the next few weeks will tell how much further the unemployment numbers rise.

Deaths are under reported in New York [1]. While obvious once pointed out, I assumed most dying from the virus were in the hospital. But there are a lot of people who don't make it to the hospital. This is sad. And it shows further evidence of the virus' wrath on socio-economic disadvantaged people.

Sourdough update: The dough is resting. Next step is adding starter + salt and resting some more. I didn't have plain wheat flour. However I did have Kodiak pancake mix [2], which amongst other ingredients consists mostly of whole wheat flour.

Virus update: Flattening the curve seems to be working from the data. The issue though seems to be the curve isn't falling back down quickly. Meaning if daily deaths hit 1,000 that continues for a couple weeks with only small decreases. Sunday is Easter. I don't feel confident people will stay home. Especially with the administration's dangerously optimistic goal of "re-opening the economy". The problem with this virus is the fact you can be contagious without symptoms for many days. R0 is an average value. We'll never have exact data, but I'm guessing the range is 0 - ~10 or more.

Some tech folks, including my boss' boss' bosses, are offering grants to folks working on COVID-19 research with the intent to have impact in the immediate future. The funding process should be significantly faster than traditional funding. [3]

[0] [1] [2] [3]

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